Hint: There are no winners.

Current investors are squeezed. Renters face tighter conditions. Future investors lose incentive to build wealth. First home buyers still face limited supply.

Nobody really wins if the underlying shortage remains untouched (see also: gets worse).

The government is trying to push investors toward new builds, but Victoria still has unreasonable planning delays (often over a year) and elevated construction costs that make new supply impossible to deliver quickly or efficiently.

You cannot solve a housing shortage by making participation less attractive while supply remains constrained. 

One small detail some people are missing: existing property owners are still grandfathered under the current negative gearing rules. But in Victoria, investors were already under pressure long before this budget.

Land tax has increased repeatedly, compliance costs continue rising, and holding costs have become materially more expensive.

At the same time, vacancy rates remain historically low, and rents continue climbing because supply simply isn’t keeping up.

It’s not greed, it’s simply supply and demand – private owners (the biggest provider of homes) are not able to provide affordable housing if it is not profitable.

That’s the real issue.

Investors are punished, renters as a result will likely absorb some of that pressure, and the incentive to solve it is pretty much gone.

Despite all the noise around the budget, the underlying problem remains exactly the same (but now worse): There still aren’t enough homes being built.